MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c8f7d8517435a228c1be426cd156457aa6707c9e113be9de019665459346a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 2,516$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.58 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 1,987$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.96 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 1,143$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 878.33$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.55 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 693.06$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.93 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 524.48$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.77 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 464.85$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.96 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 332.69$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 268.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 238.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 230.29$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 218$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 16c | 180.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…64a7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 126.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 121.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 117.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 109.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 87.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 85.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 49.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba83…4f66backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 47.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 45.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 44.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 36.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 32.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 25.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 456 | 50.4%230 W · 226 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia PhilliesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.