Premier League · resolved market
Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04b6bcfb5d2f753d24fdbdb1861f05c686cd6aa9db62c323298305916ea2e0e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe667…898fbacked Under | 0c | 66,619$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 25c | 9,367$2,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,025.39 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 8,277$4,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,957.08 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 76c | 3,967$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 75c | 2,666$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.5 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 1,926$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.35 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 3c | 1,902$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 25c | 677.79$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.19 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked Under | 3c | 665.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 24c | 529.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.72 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 69c | 253.62$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cf52backed Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…cfbebacked Under | 77c | 100.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…fbd1backed Over | 66c | 73.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Under | 15c | 69.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 66c | 66.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 149 | 75.8%113 W · 36 L | +26.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 39c | 62.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 66c | 57.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb0…d1bbbacked Under | 29c | 44.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f9…3f4fbacked Under | 33c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…d03bbacked Under | 36c | 34.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 75c | 34.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…8ce8backed Over | 64c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…1fdebacked Under | 35c | 29.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Over | 37c | 28.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +111%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 57c | 27.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 209 | 31.6%66 W · 143 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 67c | 25.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Over | 67c | 17.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.