Premier League · resolved market
Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x030ad9dfba2144a6bad0ff566115f1ba3fbc12ecb6e145a2457088144615d191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 46c | 36,062$16,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,478.18 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 54c | 26,000$13,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,964.96 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 12,526$3,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,455.87 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 46c | 4,672$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,523.11 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 4,422$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,313.11 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 54c | 3,803$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.62 | 857 | 48.5%416 W · 441 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…c844backed Over | 50c | 2,986$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…62c5backed Under | 54c | 2,633$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 47c | 1,915$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.89 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 3c | 940.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 55c | 468.16$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.68 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 52c | 373.38$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.07 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Under | 56c | 310.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.11 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 276.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 144 | 63.9%92 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 45c | 162$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 45c | 119$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 53c | 117.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7034backed Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 47c | 78.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Under | 54c | 65.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 53c | 60.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…bc76backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…150dbacked Under | 54c | 54.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…74e1backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa487…306bbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 53c | 42.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Under | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Under | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Under | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 33.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 54c | 31.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Under | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…6a01backed Under | 54c | 20.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.