Premier League · resolved market
Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x186dd86de56e9b8680af5a3a7a830dd76507a5b5a6ece7cc8f42fcc71450059b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe667…898fbacked Under | 0c | 11,991$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 2,162$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.87 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 3c | 1,886$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 60c | 1,495$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.43 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 28c | 1,295$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.96 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Under | 53c | 943.38$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 668.62$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.37 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked Under | 3c | 659.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 513.67$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.15 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.55 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 58c | 422.35$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.64 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 191.47$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 10c | 131$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed Over | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Over | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 49c | 80.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 46c | 73.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Over | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 26c | 49.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over | 37c | 40.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 50c | 37.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 34.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed Over | 46c | 34.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Under | 54c | 30.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…8958backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.41per pick | 47cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8ccdbacked Over | 53c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…150dbacked Under | 66c | 25.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…fbd1backed Over | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.