Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04eca713dd72e361c88c1fb5e617125185c4f4d14a14d0536369754a18016356
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 28c | 824.39$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.22 | 177 | 35.6%63 W · 114 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 655.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 384.72$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 350$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 224.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 210.24$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 198.64$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 194.5$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 139.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 133.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 35c | 131.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 77c | 114.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 1,489 | 24.6%366 W · 1,123 L | -34.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 112.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 112.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f49…cc93backed Yes | 49c | 102.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 301 | 67.4%203 W · 98 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 91.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 1,706 | 60.7%1,035 W · 671 L | -23.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 86.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 85.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 513 | 74.1%380 W · 133 L | +34.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 68.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 66.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 58.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 35c | 57.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 38c | 55.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 32c | 50.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 50.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,183 | 54.9%650 W · 533 L | +50.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 408 | 41.4%169 W · 239 L | +33.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 65c | 49.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 39.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 37.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 35.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 34.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 34.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 33.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 26.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 73c | 25.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 65c | 24.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 19.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 19.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 62c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 58c | 17.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 15.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,595 | 78.6%1,253 W · 342 L | +41.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.