Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6357d712a190d1148853c8bf1ccc6f6d52e42a3417795150276f0fb96a6f3ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 80c | 1,364$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.95 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 77c | 456.05$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 10c | 364.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 41c | 297.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.46 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 40c | 295.89$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.45 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 212.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 200.51$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 188.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 8c | 140.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 65c | 132$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 121$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 110.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 103.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…e526backed No | 11c | 100.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 97.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 95.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 88.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 86.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 27c | 69.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 68.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 66.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 19c | 65.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 60.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 27c | 57.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 53.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 73c | 41.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 50c | 40.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 58c | 38.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 44c | 38.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 54c | 36.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 35.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 42c | 35.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…b34abacked Yes | 42c | 35.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…7659backed Yes | 42c | 35.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 72c | 28.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 48c | 25.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…d6a7backed Yes | 44c | 23.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed Yes | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 77c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 78c | 13.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.