Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11abe4bb824a783619b5e1dfa26992faa9b66bcf30964b2618af25f23e834e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 44c | 811.09$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.88 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 30c | 804.32$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 5c | 577$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 56c | 300$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 295$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed No | 56c | 263.15$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 56c | 245.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 227.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 210.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 5c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed No | 56c | 145.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 69c | 145.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 37c | 135.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 112.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 110.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 35c | 103.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 60c | 96.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 83.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 39c | 66.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 63.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 63.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 63c | 61.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked No | 56c | 58.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 39c | 54.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 50.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 34c | 50.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 45.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 67c | 44.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 44.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 56c | 43.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 28c | 40.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 39.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 34.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 33.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 33.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 72c | 31.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 29.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 36c | 28.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 27.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 27.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 20.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 75c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 13.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.