Premier League · resolved market
Swansea City AFC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f1d68221b5e1540c42f442b1d40039eea29a28f7ebc306445080f99b537e0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 5,735$3,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,712.48 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 48c | 1,873$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.04 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 47c | 1,800$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…44fcbacked Over | 49c | 1,721$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 1,564$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.87 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,436$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.5 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 694.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 30c | 505.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 49c | 406.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 47c | 366$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.02 | 210 | 49%103 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 301.45$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 78c | 162.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 74c | 98.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 47c | 48.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 37c | 27.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5de…a312backed Over | 47c | 23.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Over | 47c | 22.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Swansea City AFC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Swansea City AFC vs. Bristol City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.