Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04fbdf4fb4f61f842a20425bbd855e3331b0c7c6f3d1f3f49f1898793b721da7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof PARIVISION, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3763…345fbacked REKONIX | 37c | 671.05$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.05 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed PARIVISION | 68c | 586.81$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.91 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked PARIVISION | 63c | 539.05$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.6 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed PARIVISION | 66c | 499.98$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.98 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed PARIVISION | 45c | 270.27$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked REKONIX | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked REKONIX | 34c | 246.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.56 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…7248backed REKONIX | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed PARIVISION | 65c | 127$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked REKONIX | 30c | 125$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed PARIVISION | 70c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed REKONIX | 34c | 51.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed REKONIX | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed PARIVISION | 50c | 40.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked REKONIX | 50c | 40.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…abfebacked REKONIX | 32c | 31.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed PARIVISION | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX - Game 2 WinnerREKONIX won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.