MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x052382d7569ca4f87a99efbf89c364d01b9aa416cb79932d2ed442016b56a379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 1,571$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.24 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 1,344$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.39 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 653.05$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.05 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 282.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 178.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 138.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 128.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 113$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 94.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 91.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 86.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 72.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 61.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 60.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…b944backed Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 55.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 47.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 40.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 38.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 29.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 19.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 17.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.