NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals Game 4: Mavericks vs. Celtics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x052653c8b9efac96129c01103270dbd5a7611eb2282dd454cfbb58f8155e72d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Mavericks, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Celtics | 50c | 2,009$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.66 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…4366backed Celtics | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Mavericks | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.98 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Celtics | 51c | 1,926$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.33 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Mavericks | 49c | 1,800$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…125fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Mavericks | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Celtics | 52c | 222$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Mavericks | 48c | 222$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Celtics | 51c | 208.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.16 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…cb78backed Mavericks | 50c | 201.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…62c8backed Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Celtics | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Celtics | 11c | 130.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked Mavericks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…a1e2backed Mavericks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Celtics | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Celtics | 48c | 56.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Mavericks | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Mavericks | 59c | 30.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 718 | 23.3%167 W · 551 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…dfcbbacked Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.