Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0546aa0421ecf6757fe79ef980596ae06b70ca4f665bb4f440cd97863e97aebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 65c | 438.62$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed No | 78c | 384.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 287.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 280.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 13c | 240$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 27c | 237.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 14c | 233.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 232.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 58c | 174.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 74c | 165.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 46c | 155.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 132.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 131.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 71c | 118.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 57c | 115.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 37c | 110.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 48c | 95.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 89.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 22c | 81.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 52c | 74.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 22c | 71.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 65.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 51c | 59.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…17b6backed Yes | 29c | 57.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 57.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 56.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 78c | 55.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 59c | 50.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 50.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 34c | 46.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 44.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 60c | 42.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 41.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 29c | 39.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 78c | 37.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 33c | 36.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 71c | 28.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked No | 44c | 28.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 71c | 27.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed No | 76c | 26.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 26.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 49c | 26.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 66c | 22.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 77c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 66c | 16.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e9…732cbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…fe21backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 14.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 77c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.