Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x054b2e0894ce3793c59b998f0b4ac4ef86435015385c82aad04e738769f17c72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,600 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked No | 43c | 19,622$8,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,437.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 45c | 12,689$5,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,709.87 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 55c | 5,570$3,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,505.86 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 55c | 2,372$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.71 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 55c | 1,494$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.7 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 4c | 769.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 709$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.33 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed No | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 56c | 468$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.52 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 43c | 267$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 118.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 54c | 111.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked No | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed No | 47c | 60.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 57c | 44.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc0…a3e4backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 80c | 38.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc664…8a9ebacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…bb2fbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-11?this page
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-10-11?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.