CS2 · resolved market
FISSURE Playground 2: HEROIC vs. Legacy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x056f724dc61a669af4a9903244124b539da619d7c75706d8210ff5493efc982b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Legacyof HEROIC, Legacy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed Legacy | 57c | 8,796$5,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,755.27 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed HEROIC | 42c | 2,626$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.92 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked HEROIC | 71c | 1,600$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked HEROIC | 42c | 1,429$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed HEROIC | 46c | 1,281$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed HEROIC | 43c | 1,000$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Legacy | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Legacy | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Legacy | 55c | 930$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.6 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Legacy | 38c | 920.97$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.02 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Legacy | 50c | 862.11$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.87 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed HEROIC | 32c | 857$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.42 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked HEROIC | 71c | 763.32$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.96 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked HEROIC | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed HEROIC | 42c | 710.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Legacy | 73c | 699$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.73 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed HEROIC | 48c | 587.28$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 426 | 38%162 W · 264 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Legacy | 58c | 565$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.3 | 199 | 60.3%120 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Legacy | 26c | 547.27$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.98 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked Legacy | 57c | 517.97$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.73 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Legacy | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed HEROIC | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5,911 | 37.7%2,228 W · 3,683 L | +74.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked HEROIC | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 246 | 40.2%99 W · 147 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed HEROIC | 46c | 415.44$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked HEROIC | 63c | 362.53$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.18 | 173 | 36.4%63 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Legacy | 45c | 359.33$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.67 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed HEROIC | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked HEROIC | 37c | 322.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed HEROIC | 42c | 300.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.32 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed HEROIC | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed HEROIC | 43c | 290.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 974 | 45.5%443 W · 531 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…b3ffbacked HEROIC | 74c | 283.78$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked HEROIC | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Legacy | 57c | 226.96$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 700 | 53.3%373 W · 327 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed HEROIC | 63c | 220$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed HEROIC | 41c | 188$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 634 | 45.3%287 W · 347 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed HEROIC | 40c | 166.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Legacy | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Legacy | 57c | 161.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 1,149 | 49.4%568 W · 581 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed HEROIC | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Legacy | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…dc27backed HEROIC | 63c | 55.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…da92backed Legacy | 38c | 50.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed HEROIC | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed HEROIC | 42c | 47.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 741 | 58%430 W · 311 L | -24.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked Legacy | 29c | 44.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…fc88backed Legacy | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed HEROIC | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 283 | 46.6%132 W · 151 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed HEROIC | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 304 | 39.1%119 W · 185 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Legacy | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Legacy | 49c | 22.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 611 | 53.4%326 W · 285 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked HEROIC | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…31b6backed Legacy | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.