Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05cd58a4748e49e4ced18e46ee422b7991cd42ce80fbeef22dd7679afce488dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 400.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 48c | 287.54$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.36 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 216.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 209.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 52c | 194$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 184$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 177.03$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 142.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 130.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 130.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 110.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 109.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 105.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 104.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…6982backed Yes | 63c | 102.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 97.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 94.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 59c | 79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 43c | 74.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 58c | 71.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 63.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 51c | 54.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 58c | 53.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 23c | 53.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 47.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 65c | 45.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 51c | 44.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 42.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 50c | 41.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 37.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 55c | 36.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 50c | 34.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…fd8bbacked Yes | 60c | 34.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 80c | 31.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 67c | 30.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 49c | 28.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…f823backed Yes | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 49c | 27.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 48c | 26.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…e60abacked Yes | 64c | 25.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 71c | 23.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 19.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 56c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 63c | 17.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.