Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f9086bace1ac1c5ef901d65def61c10b1a4598c72e608ac2648cdf8ad648209
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 296.39$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 281.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 12c | 264.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.12 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 246.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.8 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 216.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 63c | 194.86$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 33c | 189.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.98 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 184$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 174.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 8c | 174.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 47c | 164.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 14c | 163.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.83 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 153$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 132.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 126.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…4486backed Yes | 49c | 112.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 100.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 96.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 91.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 87.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 56c | 81.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 78.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 15c | 66.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 61.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 76c | 48.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 45.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 43.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 41.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 34.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 74c | 33.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 79c | 33.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 25.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 21.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 79c | 21.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 21.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 74c | 13.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.