Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05df3332942cb3cf47348e27ee2128e7a067b89638246d57153dc5e0e2239510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 24c | 546.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 62c | 316.94$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.95 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 290.95$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 282.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 258.45$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 41c | 241.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc129…feacbacked No | 69c | 226.2$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 220.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 165.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 25c | 128.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 45c | 108.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 95.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 31c | 94.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 93.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 49c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 75c | 68.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 66.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 65.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 64.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 65c | 62.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 62.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 77c | 61.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 43c | 59.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 31c | 55.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 51.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 49c | 51.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 55c | 50.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 50.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 48.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 45.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 41c | 43.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 65c | 41.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 35c | 41.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 39.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 39.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 37.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 74c | 37.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 35.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 44c | 34.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 32c | 33.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 60c | 31.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 69c | 31.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 49c | 27.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 25.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 24.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 22.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 66c | 21.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 78c | 18.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…aadbbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.