Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0a84f13432baddc25e20ee5c73f9b8f82396c40d270aaf240341a6a226ce9aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 32c | 433.73$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.9 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 316.8$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 231.23$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 214.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 34c | 205.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 35c | 161.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 26c | 147.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 35c | 129$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 117.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 27c | 111.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 104.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 93.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 83.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 37c | 78.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 66.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 57c | 64.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 30c | 60.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 58.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 65c | 55.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…31c5backed Yes | 30c | 54.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 54.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 51.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 40c | 50.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 43.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 39.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 34c | 39.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 38.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 39c | 38.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 33c | 36.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…d007backed No | 72c | 35.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 35.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 68c | 34.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 34.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…4aaebacked Yes | 36c | 34.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 73c | 33.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 77c | 32.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 28.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 27.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 68c | 26.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 55c | 23.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 22.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 65c | 21.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 60c | 20.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 19.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1777…4e65backed No | 73c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.