Ligue 1 · resolved market
AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05fb1cd09f87dbe5c7d1c524dd0e5a62d382ba221079179a9b7c61b11ff5b97a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 2,101$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.41 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…818ebacked Under | 60c | 839.99$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 40c | 687.9$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…2fa3backed Over | 40c | 602.56$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 519.02$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 40c | 422.5$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 59c | 402.02$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.87 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 39c | 274.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.73 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…f11dbacked Over | 42c | 224.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 172.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Over | 71c | 159.15$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 71c | 129.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 40c | 74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over | 42c | 73.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 71c | 70.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 41c | 68.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 63.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 38c | 55.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f5…a64fbacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 62c | 45.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c3…c8b4backed Over | 42c | 41.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd05e…941ebacked Over | 40c | 36.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 40c | 35.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd593…4374backed Over | 42c | 34.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…88a7backed Over | 40c | 34.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 44c | 33.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe04b…aae8backed Over | 40c | 31.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…101abacked Over | 40c | 30.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…45cdbacked Over | 40c | 29.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 38c | 28.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…3182backed Over | 40c | 27.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ed…6cdabacked Over | 42c | 26.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…0c27backed Over | 40c | 25.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…deabbacked Over | 42c | 23.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…b15bbacked Over | 42c | 23.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94b…925fbacked Under | 62c | 23.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…3c32backed Under | 60c | 23.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -5.3wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…f92abacked Under | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 49c | 23.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbde…49d0backed Under | 60c | 23.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4efd…76f2backed Under | 62c | 22.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…7cbcbacked Under | 62c | 21.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9a…8160backed Under | 60c | 21.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…b7c0backed Under | 62c | 21.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b7…3a01backed Under | 61c | 20.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Under | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…d660backed Under | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1993…2262backed Under | 62c | 18.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked Under | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x421a…51a3backed Under | 60c | 18.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…c8f3backed Under | 62c | 17.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…0d00backed Under | 59c | 17.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…9c70backed Under | 62c | 17.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x753f…d672backed Under | 62c | 16.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0041backed Under | 62c | 16.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5this page
- AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.