TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ligue 1 · resolved market

AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c5…8d45backed Over40c18,127$7,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,250.936942%29 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under44c17,229$7,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,706.661,91645.5%872 W · 1,044 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed Over78c13,635$10,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,635.211136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-47.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2790…d7b9backed Over0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under51c5,412$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,672.862648.6%304 W · 322 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over35c4,953$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.971,41540.8%577 W · 838 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Over46c3,712$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.845040%20 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda9b…b2a9backed Over39c2,357$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6b…b0b9backed Over69c2,102$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.17540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under54c1,066$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.4524052.9%127 W · 113 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed Under70c1,006$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.74757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8374…6768backed Over30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+85.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa75…d73fbacked Over62c800$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4de1…22a0backed Over4c680.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3383…a555backed Over3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick3cpaid+2,400%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Under37c491.31$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.535330.2%16 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed Over63c476$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.882759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under15c454$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.926346.4%122 W · 141 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7839…54cbbacked Under70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.57757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under16c416.67$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+88.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under54c408.87$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.9512448.4%60 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over38c399.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d20…1f58backed Over78c393.81$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.81580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked Over41c361.59$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under52c351.59$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.5459348.4%287 W · 306 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Over69c351.07$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2423855.3%21 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-20.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x012a…c01dbacked Over32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Over56c298.56$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16611725.6%30 W · 87 L-9.7wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Under77c285.43$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f21…d644backed Over60c259.25$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Over4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee07…3573backed Over23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc6…05dfbacked Under34c204.72$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.02425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d5…173dbacked Under79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over58c199.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.994744.7%21 W · 26 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x764f…6b8abacked Under55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.823100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ea…f0d2backed Over22c180$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.61711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-67.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over59c167.08$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over75c166.2$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.875650%28 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over52c163.46$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856842.6%29 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over53c161.02$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.377352.1%38 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over21c155.73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3933148.6%161 W · 170 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over38c151.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576518.5%12 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b90…c258backed Under33c150$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.53164.5%20 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed Over49c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-84.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5bb0…d1bbbacked Over44c146.78$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02fa…547ebacked Over28c132.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…5ac3backed Under30c115.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.361030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2388…d466backed Over33c113.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2d…2bc4backed Under18c110.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+36.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Under38c110$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.21442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…9815backed Under26c106.73$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+90.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7422340.8%91 W · 132 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227051.4%36 W · 34 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2344…6ba3backed Over41c98.41$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.592352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec3…760ebacked Over41c90$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over48c82.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.135750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over54c75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.511256.3%63 W · 49 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Over34c70.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.031428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec3a…58b0backed Over65c67.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…04b5backed Over80c64.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid+9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over54c63.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3110952.3%57 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over50c62.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.820860.6%126 W · 82 L+12.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x630e…bbd7backed Under33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.48856.8%50 W · 38 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over34c55.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195832.8%19 W · 39 L-8.0wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-43.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x957c…2965backed Over79c53.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb17…c1aebacked Under40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a7…9725backed Over63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed Over46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Over52c48.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.252948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Over50c45.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.13737.8%14 W · 23 L-6.2wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-31.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.226550.6%134 W · 131 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Under66c37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc69a…e9f7backed Over43c34.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20dc…f74cbacked Over62c32.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over33c30.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.021942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under52c29.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1313144.3%58 W · 73 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355c…81c5backed Over71c29.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.842441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5683…3ea1backed Over63c26.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Over79c15.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.