South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Atlas FC vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05ff17b51a9172f60106cbe8449f772ff2bdb12e5f581604fdd2c67fa4945461
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,264 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 9,761$7,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.44 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 5,016$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.61 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 1,807$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.83 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,450$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 28c | 1,145$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.24 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 905.4$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.79 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 24c | 828.24$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.48 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 818.43$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.88 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 23c | 505.15$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 23c | 417.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 79c | 347.46$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 38c | 325$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.91 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 59c | 321.28$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.42 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 24c | 249.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 217.57$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 24c | 213$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 76c | 184$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 13c | 169.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 37c | 120.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 26c | 85.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 56c | 72.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 49c | 48.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 24c | 47.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 55c | 44.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 42.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…4f2dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 17cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 77c | 30.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlas FC vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlas FC win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.