South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e4510cecb355892e4a547d391386f7b29e61505a2c295dcd531c479766f4cd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 18c | 19,865$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540.33 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 20c | 4,998$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.7 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 4,874$3,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.08 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 19c | 4,050$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.5 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 29c | 2,033$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.1 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 18c | 1,846$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.05 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,080$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.02 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 765.11$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.17 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…48dfbacked Yes | 18c | 753.42$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 15c | 743.28$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…1d22backed Yes | 40c | 474.64$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Yes | 26c | 450.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 34c | 293.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 79c | 245.58$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 185.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 79c | 179$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 152.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 123$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 80c | 115.92$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 18c | 90.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 459 | 46.8%215 W · 244 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 88.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 79c | 81.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x289b…714ebacked Yes | 20c | 72.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…2da0backed Yes | 15c | 65.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…2c75backed No | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed No | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x717b…2ae6backed Yes | 20c | 54.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 29c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…df3cbacked No | 80c | 39.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 64c | 38.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 76c | 31.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Yes | 48c | 30.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Yes | 49c | 26.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 68c | 26.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafeb…5cd2backed Yes | 49c | 24.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlas FC win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will Atlas FC vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.