Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06194d2a20a82d534ab4a6be714a53c1cf5337401cc7ffe83b7a14374e05e9c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 67c | 1,200$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.21 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 1,155$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.08 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 1,144$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.12 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 39c | 994.84$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.27 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 851.2$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.55 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 30c | 583.19$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.08 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Under | 61c | 473.43$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.64 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 33c | 451.59$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 68c | 410.95$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.89 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Under | 59c | 369.36$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.91 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Under | 48c | 294.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.42 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 69c | 233.28$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 27c | 170.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Under | 59c | 163.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 32c | 152$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 68c | 152$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 143.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Under | 60c | 120.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 104.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Under | 59c | 85.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Under | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Under | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 68c | 68.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 38c | 66.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 34c | 63.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Under | 63c | 38.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Over | 37c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 51c | 38.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 31c | 38.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…9994backed Under | 59c | 32.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Under | 68c | 28.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…8fb4backed Under | 60c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 67c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 51c | 21.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Under | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 68c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: New England Revolution O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 0.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5Under won
- D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)New England Revolution won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.