Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x062dafa731e417153e1c5442bfe8bf07d2a0a485d9f6829f5708a75efae807fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 44c | 517.47$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.18 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 26c | 500.49$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…4fcabacked Yes | 57c | 378.64$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 8c | 321$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 45c | 240$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 70c | 225$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 48c | 197.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 180.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 14c | 165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 164$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 8c | 127.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 78c | 114.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 57c | 93.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 87.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 73c | 63.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a735backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 49.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 23c | 47.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 36.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 33.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 34c | 31.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 58c | 30.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 28.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 70c | 27.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 70c | 27.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 58c | 25.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 64c | 25.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 78c | 21.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed No | 79c | 18.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 31?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.