Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0442f9e2594878f26581f8a8d8c233b9b6f371cd7f624583caac65b617ceea27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 8c | 1,437$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 1,294$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 691.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 73c | 650.74$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…3715backed Yes | 40c | 435.57$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 41c | 422.75$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.34 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 68c | 353.84$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 7c | 334.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed No | 75c | 314.55$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 27c | 269.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 263$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 31c | 228.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 73c | 226.64$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 24c | 214$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 36c | 201.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed No | 76c | 200.91$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 192.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 18c | 191.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 186$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 20c | 170.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 32c | 163.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 149.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 142.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 122.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 102.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 29c | 102$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 27c | 90.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 81.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed No | 76c | 74.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 72.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 26c | 62.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 62.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 54c | 61.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 74c | 60.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 61c | 57.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 35c | 54.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 63c | 52.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…db4ebacked No | 68c | 51.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed Yes | 32c | 51.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 51.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 49.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 70c | 46.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…2497backed Yes | 28c | 45.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 41.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…f7e6backed Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…1944backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 38c | 36.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…da45backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…ad10backed Yes | 43c | 27.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 39c | 26.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1d51backed No | 74c | 21.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 62c | 19.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked No | 78c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed No | 73c | 17.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 31?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.