Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa975c0bb730c92ec83ada049ac09805aab81fad796f805994d32e5197da2388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…3715backed Yes | 52c | 831.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 36c | 328.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 214.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 140$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 124$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 121$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 108.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 42c | 100.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 35c | 96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 86.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 28c | 81.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 36c | 77.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 44c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 70.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 27c | 62.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 52c | 54.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 46.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 42c | 42.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 42.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…24e2backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 39.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…b673backed No | 63c | 37.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a735backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 17.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 31?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.