Serie A · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x067c9e9ccb75db186e83df2cc53a7dec9b1f84915ff229816d82f7309beb53bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 2,335$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.85 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 64c | 745.73$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.12 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 652.85$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.84 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 47c | 629.5$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.57 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Under | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 54c | 325.93$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.93 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…cb71backed Over | 55c | 309.09$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 53c | 192.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 58c | 191.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 58c | 170.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 54c | 162$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 55c | 145$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 55c | 145$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 55c | 145$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Over | 47c | 102.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Under | 46c | 86.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 50c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 136 | 50.7%69 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 73c | 50.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 26.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 57c | 26.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 54c | 24.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 53c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…eb14backed Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.