Serie A · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07d22ff9dd50609833c077092a3766cb08507a5778a521232068688f20b36db2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 3,633$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.82 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 75c | 3,224$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 1,805$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.76 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 33c | 1,552$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.17 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 15c | 1,457$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.38 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 79c | 443$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.28per pick | 64cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc89c…d58cbacked Under | 68c | 267.29$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 31c | 252.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Under | 7c | 250.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Under | 10c | 231.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.19 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 36c | 137.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 23c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 25c | 53.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086c…d655backed Under | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.