Serie A · resolved market

Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1121b637304f7e49aa8a65d27c8d1ab354dbd4d2d047c71ea5f8fe48675a243e

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cagliari Calcioof Atalanta BC, Cagliari Calcio
Resolved: Dec 13, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,281 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Cagliari Calcio	52c	24,856$12,876 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,979.8	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Atalanta BC	48c	10,416$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,999.68	91	50.5%46 W · 45 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Atalanta BC	48c	5,625$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	527	48%253 W · 274 L	-35.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Atalanta BC	49c	5,102$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Atalanta BC	50c	1,500$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Cagliari Calcio	51c	1,172$599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.4	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Atalanta BC	48c	1,041$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.68	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Cagliari Calcio	56c	1,000$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-4.2wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa573…f034backed Atalanta BC	49c	800$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.91	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Cagliari Calcio	53c	600$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cagliari Calcio	51c	530.54$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.81	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Atalanta BC	49c	510.18$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.99	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Atalanta BC	46c	310$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.6	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+5.8wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb07…0769backed Atalanta BC	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+118.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Atalanta BC	77c	274.02$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x64c6…244cbacked Cagliari Calcio	53c	188.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.59	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Atalanta BC	48c	183$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.84	285	56.1%160 W · 125 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Cagliari Calcio	51c	172$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.28	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Atalanta BC	48c	166$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.68	115	50.4%58 W · 57 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Atalanta BC	48c	166$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.68	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Atalanta BC	48c	166$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.68	141	55.3%78 W · 63 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Atalanta BC	48c	166$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.68	154	59.1%91 W · 63 L	+11.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Atalanta BC	48c	166$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.68	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Atalanta BC	48c	160$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.8	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa04d…c86fbacked Atalanta BC	48c	137.5$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Atalanta BC	48c	123$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.04	255	56.5%144 W · 111 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Atalanta BC	48c	123$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.04	184	59.2%109 W · 75 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x051c…f25dbacked Cagliari Calcio	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Atalanta BC	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	136	48.5%66 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Cagliari Calcio	52c	92.98$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.21	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+5.5wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Atalanta BC	48c	91$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.68	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Atalanta BC	48c	83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.84	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Atalanta BC	48c	83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.84	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Atalanta BC	48c	83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.84	127	54.3%69 W · 58 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Atalanta BC	48c	83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.84	136	50.7%69 W · 67 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Atalanta BC	48c	82$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	168	51.2%86 W · 82 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f3…0d57backed Atalanta BC	48c	77.71$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.3	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.7wins	+0.30per pick	47cpaid	+76.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c67…21eebacked Cagliari Calcio	53c	72.09$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.88	55	58.2%32 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Atalanta BC	48c	68$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	158	47.5%75 W · 83 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Atalanta BC	48c	68$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Cagliari Calcio	53c	63.62$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.9	155	50.3%78 W · 77 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Atalanta BC	48c	62.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9014…db4abacked Atalanta BC	48c	51$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	78	52.6%41 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Atalanta BC	48c	51$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Atalanta BC	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-29%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Cagliari Calcio	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x63ba…12d4backed Cagliari Calcio	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Atalanta BC	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Atalanta BC	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Atalanta BC	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Atalanta BC	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Atalanta BC	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Atalanta BC	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	119	53.8%64 W · 55 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Atalanta BC	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Atalanta BC	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	114	48.2%55 W · 59 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Atalanta BC	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	71	52.1%37 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed Atalanta BC	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+23%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe41…cab4backed Atalanta BC	51c	40.67$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.74	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbb…1594backed Cagliari Calcio	52c	38$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.24	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+3.4wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x042e…f947backed Atalanta BC	47c	37.75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.74	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Atalanta BC	48c	34$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	76	52.6%40 W · 36 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Atalanta BC	48c	34$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Cagliari Calcio	51c	29.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-5.9wins	-0.26per pick	52cpaid	-45%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xffac…d469backed Atalanta BC	48c	29.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb4…9854backed Atalanta BC	77c	25.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Atalanta BC	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	124	53.2%66 W · 58 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)this page
Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event