Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x067dec62cab0516c7dc830448f90eef9f77df1ce9e0be53ad1f331357e92f427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec56…1816backed Over | 30c | 896.18$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.05 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Under | 78c | 875$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 23c | 870.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 10c | 725.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 7c | 556.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Over | 19c | 399.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 280 | 12.9%36 W · 244 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 376.61$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 14c | 114.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 15c | 83.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 23c | 52.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: FC Twente '65 O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Ferencvárosi TC O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Ferencvárosi TC O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Twente '65 (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: FC Twente '65 (-2.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5)FC Twente '65 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.