Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2698f0a31103640476ca88b2b9168a3774f2f09c51da532358f7b1530b734d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 10,317$3,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,395.9 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 61c | 2,234$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.63 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 66c | 1,898$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.29 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…2c33backed Over | 68c | 1,479$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fba…fd69backed Under | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d2…399bbacked Under | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked Under | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Over | 75c | 1,278$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.53 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Under | 19c | 1,250$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.49 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36a5…4a10backed Under | 19c | 1,079$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 20c | 952.38$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.48 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…17eabacked Under | 7c | 830.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 42c | 602.62$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.48 | 658 | 35.6%234 W · 424 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 57c | 558.9$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.49 | 1,117 | 35.8%400 W · 717 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 50c | 524.36$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.18 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 42cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 43c | 517$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.21 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 41c | 497.44$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.15 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 12c | 480$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 58c | 463.57$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.57 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 35c | 459.11$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.26 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 48c | 394.62$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 58c | 281$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…31fdbacked Over | 57c | 272$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 19c | 252.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Under | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bc…d6d1backed Under | 11c | 174.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 24c | 168.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x924c…fc41backed Over | 60c | 166.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 159.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 482 | 49.8%240 W · 242 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…b09bbacked Over | 55c | 128$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 25c | 123$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 41c | 110.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 443 | 56.2%249 W · 194 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 26c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 352 | 46.3%163 W · 189 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…ef21backed Over | 57c | 100.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 21c | 95.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 30c | 94.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 14c | 92.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 50c | 87.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 40 | 82.5%33 W · 7 L | +11.3wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 26c | 80.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 38c | 75.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 50c | 70.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 66c | 64.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 37c | 63.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 40c | 59.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 503 | 54.7%275 W · 228 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Under | 30c | 54.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 23c | 43.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0163backed Over | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…8b6dbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 47c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…723fbacked Over | 56c | 21.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2a…4214backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 74c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 66c | 15.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: FC Twente '65 O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Ferencvárosi TC O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Ferencvárosi TC O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Twente '65 (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: FC Twente '65 (-2.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5)FC Twente '65 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.