Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x069d60d514bf6f5b06356627fe0c0fc7137f5c913ecf1307aa1ffb74dd246b74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0609…b093backed Yes | 12c | 1,747$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 25c | 1,336$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…49b3backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Yes | 15c | 976.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 724.3$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.1 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 73c | 717.99$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.86 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 17c | 646.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 15c | 510$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 15c | 488$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 27c | 464.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 15c | 382.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 18c | 379.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 25c | 303.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 75c | 290$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 28c | 260.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes | 26c | 248$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 20c | 245.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…5fefbacked Yes | 23c | 238$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 6c | 232.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 77c | 195.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 75c | 182$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 25c | 160.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 146.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 75c | 116$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 113.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 12c | 105.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…c9aebacked No | 74c | 61.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 79c | 53.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 75c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-31?Yes won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.