TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$283,940
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$311,570

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,940 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb784…61d0backed Yes47c27,050$12,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,336.52373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+39.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes68c23,155$15,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,438.575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f20…96a8backed No55c21,448$11,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,796.351855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No53c16,050$8,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,506.52740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5c…36f0backed Yes47c15,319$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,119.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No55c10,107$5,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,558.754938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Yes45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed No12c9,798$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.921216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No57c9,300$5,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3014341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Yes44c9,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0409831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed No53c8,985$4,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7622552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes44c8,519$3,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,752.6769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No43c7,993$3,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,461.463,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes43c7,783$3,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,436.0110553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ab…e3a9backed No56c6,815$3,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,816.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No16c5,729$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.682,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No55c5,281$2,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,904.415549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,85033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked No53c4,700$2,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4915152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Yes47c4,250$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,252.52040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No57c4,000$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259.975923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes45c3,886$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No55c3,841$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.5518545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No41c3,689$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.641,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes45c3,317$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.951,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Yes46c3,261$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.874254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed Yes46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6202356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes46c2,901$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.285440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf154…27e3backed Yes46c2,587$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.963100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1007967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No7c1,673$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.669532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes43c1,673$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.343438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Yes43c1,505$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.8111644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes45c1,286$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.2817251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes44c1,251$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70333945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70af…26fdbacked Yes43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.791225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No34c1,036$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.751,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf49…e7f4backed No53c1,020$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed Yes45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5506256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x176e…8f96backed Yes43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5703100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+96.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbffe…e4efbacked No31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101850%9 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2809…b26abacked Yes46c1,000$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No55c928.5$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.1335856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No55c900$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49523046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Yes44c700$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3929856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes53c683.06$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.1951136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc079…8accbacked Yes43c650$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes45c648.9$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.914846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Yes45c555.56$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.564465.9%29 W · 15 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No15c513.43$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8413139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2705044%22 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2754645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfece…940bbacked Yes45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e3…42f1backed Yes45c480$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed No53c479.36$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.061833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Yes45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.443458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Yes46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.782969%20 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes47c418.39$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.757639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16438845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22424322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes41c399.97$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.9833340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc0e…84d1backed No55c399.97$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-78.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77f3…5db1backed No57c358.35$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc07…1751backed No57c351.9$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9be…fa51backed No57c350.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No13c350$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4533737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed No55c350$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.520545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff83…9b69backed Yes44c349.55$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…da4fbacked No57c349.02$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcecd…9b7abacked No57c348.64$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x776b…f97abacked No57c345.93$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04db…7dbcbacked No57c345.25$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48bb…f443backed Yes44c345.04$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7762…0bc2backed Yes44c340.83$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes45c340$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1876660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0198…f026backed No57c337.48$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a9…3f36backed Yes44c336.94$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes45c333.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3317652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x470c…1290backed Yes44c333.33$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…5d31backed Yes44c329.2$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2283…6bc2backed Yes44c328.13$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9943…63e6backed Yes44c326.75$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa383…a2f0backed Yes71c321$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.39145.1%41 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f3…2e5abacked Yes43c317.1$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Yes48c312.64$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.643063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes44c300.02$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0119446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16816045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked No55c288.2$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.512470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a5d…e3f4backed Yes75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+26.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f85…87d5backed No11c257.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.636055%33 W · 27 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Yes46c250$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13616850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No54c250$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1355457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No55c240.8$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.449053.3%48 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked No9c233.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1811045.5%50 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No14c229.64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9276234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes44c228$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5534342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No11c225.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.392128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed No18c193.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4111931.1%37 W · 82 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.