Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06d8a2b0478f3aa8f6b768bb3e812505ca773b3a0cfbf2ed44dd1492929fcc4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,420$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.46 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 1,331$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.73 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 513.82$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 42c | 500.02$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.34 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 36c | 442.35$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 381.98$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 319.01$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 302$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 61c | 286.17$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 222.89$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 206.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 38c | 197.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 41c | 194.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 61c | 169.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 24c | 153.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 129.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…5b68backed No | 65c | 128.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 40c | 128$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 24c | 98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 57c | 87.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 56c | 87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 79.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 58c | 71.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 39c | 71.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 67.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…44b7backed Yes | 41c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 60.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 59.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 50.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 47c | 50.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed No | 65c | 43.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 38.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 34.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 55c | 34.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 39c | 33.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 33.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 36c | 30.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 66c | 29.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 42c | 25.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…70a3backed Yes | 47c | 25.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 59c | 23.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 58c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.