MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06e96e51734387dc8d498a50a7a212d8d25972d21e60e039792c0adda11b219f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 3,252$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.96 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 2,098$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.7 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,785$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.35 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 1,092$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.75 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 500$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 449$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.97 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 392$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.98 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 17c | 355.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 186.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 116.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 112.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 105.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 101.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 94.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 64.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 195 | 49.2%96 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 63.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 22c | 54.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 53.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 42.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 23.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 18.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.