MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4bcb024e431bebbd7eb3ad4eac41881ffbf1498dba0b5e15a62b7a8040dd596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 1,653$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.75 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 33c | 1,645$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.79 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 1,225$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 798$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.94 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 26c | 793.29$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.04 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 448.44$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 415.64$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 392$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.33 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 330.32$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.97 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 329.61$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 13c | 172$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Angels | 14c | 152.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.05 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 149.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 141$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 134$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 106.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Los Angeles Angels | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Los Angeles Angels | 19c | 90$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 89.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 86.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 43c | 72.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Los Angeles Angels | 39c | 57.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Los Angeles Angels | 21c | 55.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 30.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 29.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 26.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 22.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 22.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.