TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yellow Submarineof Power Rangers, Yellow Submarine
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,758 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Power Rangers62c12,965$7,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,994.123653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yellow Submarine45c3,648$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,991.0377941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Power Rangers53c2,802$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.4815650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Yellow Submarine45c2,744$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.0171454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Yellow Submarine42c1,479$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.8510136.6%37 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed Power Rangers45c1,407$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed Yellow Submarine40c1,230$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.955234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Power Rangers1c1,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Power Rangers56c1,063$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.4434544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7add…7a7bbacked Yellow Submarine37c873.15$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.11942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Power Rangers58c857.56$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.2514849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Power Rangers44c841.48$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.386949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Yellow Submarine38c820$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.428145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0122…f1aabacked Yellow Submarine42c779.73$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+116.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Power Rangers57c705.25$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed Yellow Submarine44c673.45$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.13875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Power Rangers53c636.59$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.5370052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Yellow Submarine42c615.23$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.233333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Power Rangers61c614.99$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.6360542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe491…ccd1backed Power Rangers60c600$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602650%13 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a9…5225backed Power Rangers49c595.91$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Power Rangers61c562.27$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.3322945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Yellow Submarine60c542.3$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3411648.3%56 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…e5d6backed Power Rangers60c504.55$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.53764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Yellow Submarine47c500$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.342145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Power Rangers22c445.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yellow Submarine36c445$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed Yellow Submarine66c439.56$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.972055%11 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Power Rangers58c405.27$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.851,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Power Rangers39c386.3$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.481,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine38c381.42$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.6997142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Yellow Submarine38c363$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.0618954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f9…d587backed Yellow Submarine24c351.36$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.032231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x688e…148dbacked Yellow Submarine58c346.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.663154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Power Rangers58c342.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Yellow Submarine42c336.04$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.5346649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Yellow Submarine24c330.8$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.4711043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Yellow Submarine39c319.2$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.197560%45 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Yellow Submarine62c304.62$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2551049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc14d…f137backed Yellow Submarine65c292.26$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.261675%12 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Power Rangers6c270$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.414744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a3…a124backed Power Rangers57c264.07$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Yellow Submarine38c262.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.853050%15 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Yellow Submarine37c252.15$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.6514048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Yellow Submarine68c225.56$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.182958.6%17 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6e…d043backed Yellow Submarine69c218.07$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.071560%9 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Power Rangers45c210$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.528544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc10a…46b5backed Power Rangers56c209.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.591747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Power Rangers46c209.74$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.834820.8%10 W · 38 L-7.3wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-55.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yellow Submarine39c205.62$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.436237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b9…0a9bbacked Power Rangers65c202.49$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6210156.4%57 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Power Rangers59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11828244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Yellow Submarine40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12049133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Yellow Submarine42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11625147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked Yellow Submarine44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1122259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed Power Rangers74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1485747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc036…fba6backed Yellow Submarine24c195.83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+208.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfbb…55b0backed Power Rangers74c188.91$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.092941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d68…21c2backed Yellow Submarine41c188.5$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked Yellow Submarine24c187.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.530543%131 W · 174 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yellow Submarine53c181.56$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.22,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed Yellow Submarine24c180$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.85648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Yellow Submarine58c169$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.987546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yellow Submarine34c167.2$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.358040%32 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63b2…a85cbacked Yellow Submarine42c167.07$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+106%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb127…b8a2backed Power Rangers61c164.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a45…172abacked Yellow Submarine62c163.81$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Power Rangers31c163.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0378516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xc2b0…e756backed Power Rangers25c158.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.972025%5 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed Power Rangers43c155.1$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4415033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed Yellow Submarine37c155$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.657753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Yellow Submarine37c153.89$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4247951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Power Rangers35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Power Rangers20c141.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.043033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Yellow Submarine47c141.04$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7618745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6897…a0a4backed Yellow Submarine71c140.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.311361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Yellow Submarine43c139.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.98748.3%42 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine53c138.54$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.762,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Yellow Submarine58c134.62$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5426550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Power Rangers21c134.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6924137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13af…b19fbacked Power Rangers55c125.17$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.466460.9%39 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed Yellow Submarine56c118.67$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.868035%28 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4eec…14c8backed Power Rangers47c117.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff93…91bfbacked Power Rangers55c117.86$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Power Rangers44c116.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2534063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc71a…f135backed Yellow Submarine38c116.26$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…9da8backed Yellow Submarine34c114$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.241258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yellow Submarine36c110.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.663138.7%12 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+30.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yellow Submarine52c109.79$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.21,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Power Rangers38c106.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0448352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8806…8d7bbacked Yellow Submarine38c102.63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e7…174fbacked Yellow Submarine38c102.63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.631154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce53…834bbacked Power Rangers60c100.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.353461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Yellow Submarine43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked Yellow Submarine24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769244.6%41 W · 51 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Yellow Submarine42c97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2614744.2%65 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Power Rangers53c92.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4935461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Yellow Submarine44c91.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.186650%33 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Yellow Submarine42c87.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5922845.6%104 W · 124 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Yellow Submarine62c75.58$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5213138.9%51 W · 80 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.