AI · resolved market
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x070ed96156887628e6844ea32bcaa30648a06aee84c1a4a63de0cfb1a3895c32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 1c | 12,124$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 3c | 6,190$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 1c | 2,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed No | 10c | 2,072$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 2c | 1,529$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 1c | 1,292$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed No | 1c | 955$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 28c | 885.27$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked No | 7c | 865$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 6c | 443.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…7134backed No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 6c | 361.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed No | 10c | 350.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?this page
- Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Korea" or "Korean" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.