TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Sheffield Wednesday FCof Derby County FC, Sheffield Wednesday FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,984 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e5e…fd91backed Sheffield Wednesday FC48c20,000$9,600 inWon+$10,399.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Derby County FC52c8,435$4,386 inLost-$4,385.9819253.1%102 W · 90 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Derby County FC52c7,487$3,878 inLost-$3,878.492,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Derby County FC52c3,000$1,560 inLost-$1,56014258.5%83 W · 59 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Derby County FC52c2,000$1,040 inLost-$1,0405949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Sheffield Wednesday FC49c1,517$743 inWon+$773.8432037.2%119 W · 201 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Derby County FC53c303.58$162 inLost-$161.836,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf2d…8452backed Derby County FC52c95.94$50 inLost-$505933.9%20 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Derby County FC55c60$33 inLost-$3366031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Derby County FC52c51.88$27 inLost-$26.9820758%120 W · 87 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Derby County FC41c35$14 inLost-$14.251516.1%83 W · 432 L-49.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1107…026dbacked Derby County FC52c30$16 inLost-$15.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Derby County FC62c22.22$14 inLost-$13.781,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Derby County FC52c21.55$11 inLost-$11.2110750.5%54 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.