Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6fd68865a1741a197b07254670d5c92c162d53a4a4fda733feb1affafcebaa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,942 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 576.19$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.77 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…bc84backed Under | 80c | 514$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 21c | 350$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 314.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 59c | 174$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 42c | 35.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 70c | 16.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 79c | 14.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Derby County FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Sheffield Wednesday FC won
- Spread: Sheffield Wednesday FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
- Spread: Sheffield Wednesday FC (-2.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.