MLB · resolved market
Who will win Game 1 of Braves vs. Mets?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x072e4b02a01a13ae069a522ede8ac681ae25d2150178863ec28bd8bfdddf919c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metsof Braves, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Mets | 43c | 10,600$4,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,042 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked Braves | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Braves | 66c | 6,766$4,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,493.56 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Mets | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Mets | 34c | 1,491$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.06 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Braves | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Mets | 41c | 325.08$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Braves | 59c | 323.39$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Braves | 58c | 218.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Mets | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Braves | 56c | 84.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked Mets | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Braves | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Braves | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Braves | 67c | 24.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Who will win Game 1 of Braves vs. Mets?this page
- Braves vs. Mets Doubleheader - Will there be a sweep?No won
- Who will win Game 2 of Braves vs. Mets?Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.