Europa Conference League · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07460b2143c1765cd9de80331d0c43035224ad78c4cffd0a50de4e1a18d1f249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 19c | 1,712$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.32 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 1c | 1,580$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Under | 15c | 762.02$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 71c | 761.69$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.89 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 29c | 599.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458c…ee3ebacked Over | 71c | 415.18$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 302.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 259.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 71c | 198.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 33 | 81.8%27 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Under | 21c | 194.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 181.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…9f44backed Over | 71c | 138.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…6ba0backed Over | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 30c | 133$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -21.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 30c | 113.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 29c | 107.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b2…2753backed Under | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 28c | 90.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 74c | 82.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 70c | 80.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe35…5d8bbacked Under | 15c | 71.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Under | 30c | 53.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Over | 70c | 49.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -12.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…686ebacked Over | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 1.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.