Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55c966fd3acc124f1ab9a747e224250767866b5b400575bbc02864382245242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rayo Vallecano de Madridof Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, AEK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43b6…9a9bbacked AEK | 55c | 4,210$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 43c | 2,576$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.88 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 50c | 2,122$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.04 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 26c | 1,938$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.16 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 63c | 614.37$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.52 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked AEK | 58c | 508.4$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.87 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed AEK | 44c | 331.87$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked AEK | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 23c | 238.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.49 | 1,199 | 47.5%569 W · 630 L | -5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed AEK | 77c | 233.73$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.97 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed AEK | 75c | 220.02$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed AEK | 74c | 212.84$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…a066backed AEK | 74c | 203.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed AEK | 74c | 197.38$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.06 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed AEK | 74c | 197.38$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.06 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed AEK | 28c | 170.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed AEK | 76c | 140.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 556 | 45.9%255 W · 301 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked AEK | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked AEK | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed AEK | 71c | 133$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -25.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed AEK | 29c | 128.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 26c | 125$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 896 | 48.2%432 W · 464 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 26c | 125$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1,319 | 50.8%670 W · 649 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f1…ae89backed AEK | 59c | 116.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed AEK | 24c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 41c | 89.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed AEK | 27c | 88.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked AEK | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 24c | 82.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked AEK | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed AEK | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 25c | 49.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed AEK | 30c | 49.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 383 | 47.8%183 W · 200 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…ba41backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 27c | 47.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed AEK | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -11.8wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 52c | 43.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2,433 | 37.4%909 W · 1,524 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed AEK | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -12.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe35…5d8bbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 44c | 28.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 73c | 27.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 50c | 26.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 42c | 25.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed AEK | 75c | 13.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.