NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x077babd395737c7e396a8c36f098fb2b83b4af527715509d4a998c6e15658bb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Canadiens, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Canadiens | 32c | 700$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Flyers | 68c | 686$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.52 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 33c | 600$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.14 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Flyers | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Flyers | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Flyers | 69c | 238.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…aa9ebacked Flyers | 66c | 214.98$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Canadiens | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Canadiens | 31c | 177.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Flyers | 67c | 167$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Flyers | 67c | 164$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Flyers | 67c | 162$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Flyers | 67c | 159$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Canadiens | 33c | 155$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flyers | 68c | 154.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Flyers | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Flyers | 67c | 140$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Canadiens | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Flyers | 67c | 138$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Flyers | 67c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…f795backed Canadiens | 33c | 121.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Flyers | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Flyers | 67c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Flyers | 67c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Canadiens | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Flyers | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Flyers | 68c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Flyers | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Flyers | 67c | 65.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Flyers | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -35%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Flyers | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Flyers | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…db2dbacked Canadiens | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Canadiens | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Canadiens | 33c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Canadiens | 31c | 51.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Canadiens | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Canadiens | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Canadiens | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Canadiens | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Canadiens | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Canadiens | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Canadiens | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Canadiens | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Canadiens | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Canadiens | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Flyers | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Flyers | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Canadiens | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Canadiens | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Canadiens | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Canadiens | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Canadiens | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Canadiens | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Flyers | 66c | 35.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Canadiens | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Canadiens | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Canadiens | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Canadiens | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Canadiens | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flyers | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Flyers | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Flyers | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Flyers | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…0a0ebacked Flyers | 69c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Flyers | 66c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. CanadiensFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.