Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07b81a32cc8eb6123409ac5b563d13169b146dc4688fb9083415eda49156437a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 754.25$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.23 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 489.09$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 39c | 215$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 212.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 153.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 138.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed No | 66c | 121$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 79c | 114.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 79c | 105.38$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 43c | 92.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 92.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 62c | 89.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 87.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 83.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 76.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 71.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 68.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 57c | 58.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 68c | 54.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 68c | 51.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 43c | 49.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 44.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 30c | 42.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 36.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 55c | 32.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 69c | 28.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 72c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 25.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 46c | 22.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 22.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…baf4backed No | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 67c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 67c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 64c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 78c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.