MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07bfe46f65f4a28c3df954cc0809252b80b69c95c589e490bda9f8f283ce0e2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4a9…4d64backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 1,929$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 4c | 1,359$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 1,251$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.86 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…e597backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 960.59$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.63 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 424.16$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 363.05$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.85 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Kansas City Royals | 21c | 285.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 139$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 126.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 122.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…4ea7backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 108.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 82.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kansas City Royals | 17c | 58.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 56.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 48.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 43.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 38.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 32.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 31.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 23.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 22.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.