MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f4bc7f85c5f70893323f3fdef1345650ac4a5efe538f1c8861e2eb53a3e7d27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 56c | 10,970$6,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,818.85 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 5,911$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,531.8 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 46c | 3,377$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.57 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 1,529$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 50c | 840.25$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.13 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 52c | 374.25$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.83 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 35c | 355$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 190.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Over | 69c | 142.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 53c | 128.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 44c | 126.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Under | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…f4e8backed Under | 47c | 103.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 42c | 101.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 42c | 101.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad9…caefbacked Over | 42c | 101.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +49%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…5431backed Over | 42c | 101.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…58c9backed Over | 42c | 101.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Under | 46c | 100.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Under | 52c | 68.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Under | 52c | 65.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Under | 34c | 65.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Under | 52c | 57.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 48c | 48.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 49c | 48.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 59c | 45.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 59c | 44.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…eba5backed Under | 68c | 43.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 36c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 46c | 33.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 38c | 30.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 43c | 27.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 52c | 21.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.