WNBA · resolved market
Valkyries vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07cf1da683f351f8b75695ee94333ff415ec072dd250f03a850a37794eb23235
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Valkyries, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Valkyries | 30c | 10,931$3,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,256.36 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mercury | 70c | 8,647$6,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.1 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury | 70c | 3,177$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.79 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Valkyries | 33c | 2,928$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.16 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 64c | 1,831$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.93 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.54 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Mercury | 72c | 1,451$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.17 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mercury | 71c | 1,171$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.59 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Valkyries | 35c | 1,080$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Valkyries | 36c | 800$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Valkyries | 29c | 470.31$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mercury | 67c | 382$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.03 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Valkyries | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Valkyries | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Valkyries | 34c | 295.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Mercury | 69c | 287.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Mercury | 66c | 261.24$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Mercury | 70c | 222$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Mercury | 56c | 206.66$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…066abacked Mercury | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Valkyries | 29c | 193.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 69c | 155$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…e26cbacked Valkyries | 50c | 115.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Valkyries | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Mercury | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Valkyries | 28c | 95.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mercury | 70c | 92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Valkyries | 32c | 76.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Mercury | 66c | 67.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury | 68c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0d…3ec8backed Valkyries | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Mercury | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Valkyries | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ea…a364backed Mercury | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…5e28backed Mercury | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.