TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,105 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds58c1,428$832 inLost-$832.472,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds57c1,186$676 inLost-$676.013,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Cleveland Guardians43c1,163$500 inWon+$662.7961351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians42c1,098$461 inWon+$636.854,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians75c446.41$335 inWon+$111.610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians41c410$168 inWon+$241.91,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds44c264$117 inLost-$116.648,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds25c208.66$52 inLost-$51.7712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds58c173.63$101 inLost-$100.72,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Cincinnati Reds59c122$72 inLost-$71.9872648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians41c120$49 inWon+$70.81,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds58c60.71$35 inLost-$35.212,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Cleveland Guardians42c60$25 inWon+$34.821242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians42c50.22$21 inWon+$29.131,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Cleveland Guardians42c47.62$20 inWon+$27.6262554.2%339 W · 286 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Cincinnati Reds58c45.72$27 inLost-$26.5216553.3%88 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Cleveland Guardians56c36$20 inWon+$15.8426553.2%141 W · 124 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Cleveland Guardians54c30$16 inWon+$13.742,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed Cleveland Guardians42c24.57$10 inWon+$14.259543.2%41 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ad…71acbacked Cincinnati Reds58c21.01$12 inLost-$12.197342.5%31 W · 42 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.