MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb8816168e274297fd61239a2b57f3eca0e1dce34a1a0c7e9c6e2a1fe103c7d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 10,852$6,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…5174backed Under | 0c | 6,356$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 35c | 6,033$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 38c | 4,608$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 671$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.66 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 659.7$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 71c | 422.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.53 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 249.18$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 67c | 247.3$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 47c | 229.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 150.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 44c | 121.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 40c | 118.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 44c | 116.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 43c | 95.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 58c | 86.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 49c | 74.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 51c | 49.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 41.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 43c | 36.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 78c | 32.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 42c | 28.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 49c | 28.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87a…2dddbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 73c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.